Bitstamp Monthly Briefing – November 2024
November was a turning point for the crypto market, with bullish sentiment sparking strong momentum across the board. Total market cap surged, key assets like Stellar and Ripple outperformed expectations, and market dynamics continued to evolve in response to global forces.
In such a fast-moving market, having the right insights can make all the difference; because strategy starts with staying informed. That’s why we’re bringing you November’s monthly briefing, covering market trends, key performers, and the forces shaping crypto’s future.
Ready?
Market update
The total crypto market cap increased by 44.6% month-over-month, reaching $3.33 trillion at the end of November. Trading volume on the leading crypto spot exchanges we monitor saw a 137% increase during this period.
BTC's market dominance decreased by 3.03 percentage points month-over-month to 57.2%.
Total crypto market cap (grey) and BTC dominance (green)
Source: Total crypto market cap, Bitcoin dominance
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The performance of crypto assets can be highly volatile. Data taken on December 1, 2024.
Best performing CMC 100 assets in November
- +468.1% Stellar (XLM) – Stellar’s total value locked (TVL) more than doubled in November, indicating the network’s expanding use case and growing bullish sentiment.
- +287.9% Algorand (ALGO) – The rally was driven by bullish on-chain metrics and expectations of a favorable regulatory shift.
- +282.9% Ripple (XRP) – The rally was fueled by optimism surrounding a favorable outcome in the SEC lawsuit, a more supportive regulatory environment, and excitement over a potential stablecoin project.
Worst performing CMC 100 assets in November
- -14.3% Popcat (SOL) (POPCAT) – The strong uptrend reversed shortly after reaching a new ATH in the middle of the month.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The performance of crypto assets can be highly volatile. Data taken on December 1, 2024.
Key macro & crypto events in December 2024
- December 9-10: Bitcoin MENA in Abu Dhabi, UAE
- December 9-11: Africa Bitcoin Conference in Nairobi, Kenya
- December 10-14: Taipei Blockchain Week in Taipei, Taiwan
- December 11: US Inflation & Core Inflation rate
- December 12: Governing Council of the ECB in Frankfurt, Germany
- December 12-13: Global Blockchain Show in Dubai, UAE
- December 16-18: Policy Summit in Washington, D.C.
- December 18: Fed Interest rate decision & press conference
- December 18: FOMC Economic projections
Unpacking the forces shaping crypto
The year 2024 held several potential determinative factors for the future of the cryptocurrency market, particularly the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. and the implementation of the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework in Europe. Looking ahead, the future of crypto appears poised for dynamic developments shaped by regulatory frameworks, economic factors, and U.S. political initiatives under Trump’s reelection.
Regulation and policy shifts
The European Union has set a benchmark for comprehensive crypto regulation with its Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework, implemented in 2024. MiCA provides a unified legal framework across EU member states, focusing on licensing, consumer protection, and financial stability. This approach is expected to enhance Europe’s appeal as a hub for crypto innovation by reducing regulatory uncertainty for businesses and investors.
The U.S. has also seen significant regulatory activity, including the SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, marking a pivotal moment for institutional crypto adoption. Key legislative efforts include stablecoin oversight (e.g., the Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act) and redefining regulatory frameworks through the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act. These laws aim to shift oversight of many crypto assets from the SEC to the CFTC, clarifying the legal status of digital assets as either securities or commodities, aligning with global efforts such as Europe’s MiCA framework.
Under the Biden administration, the U.S. has taken a cautious regulatory approach to crypto, emphasizing investor protection and financial stability. However, this approach often translates into ambiguous or restrictive policies, pushing some crypto innovation overseas. Donald Trump’s return to the presidency could signal a shift in U.S. crypto policy. His campaign promises to replace SEC Chair Gary Gensler with a crypto-friendly figure, halt the development of a U.S. CBDC, establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve, and form a crypto advisory council may foster institutional adoption and encourage transparent regulations.
Macroeconomic factors and institutional adoption
Globally, the trajectory of inflation, interest rates, and economic recovery will significantly impact the crypto market. During periods of high inflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are often promoted as hedges against fiat currency devaluation. However, rising interest rates can weaken crypto’s appeal as a speculative asset, as investors turn to safer, yield-generating options. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy will remain a critical determinant of market sentiment.
Institutional interest in blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies is expected to grow, driven by advancements in DeFi, the tokenization of real-world assets, and developments in Layer-2 scaling solutions. Major corporations are also increasingly integrating blockchain solutions for supply chain management, payments, and data security.
Outlook
The next four years are likely to see a dual narrative in cryptocurrency markets. Regions like the EU may solidify their leadership through balanced regulations, while the U.S. could face a critical juncture depending on its political direction. If Trump’s promises materialize, the U.S. could reclaim its position as a leader in blockchain innovation. However, macroeconomic pressures, global regulatory competition, and technological breakthroughs will collectively determine the future trajectory of the crypto sector. This period could either catalyze crypto’s integration into mainstream finance or highlight its speculative vulnerabilities, depending on the execution of policies and global economic conditions.
Recommended reads
Bitcoin L2s by Gabe Parker, Galaxy research
Bitcoin Layer 2 (L2) solutions are rapidly evolving to address Bitcoin's scalability and usability limitations, growing from 10 to 75 projects since 2021. These L2s, including rollups and sidechains, leverage independent execution environments to bypass Bitcoin's base-layer constraints, enabling DeFi, tokenization, and yield-generating applications. With $447 million in venture funding since 2018—36% of it in 2024—L2s aim to attract liquidity from native Bitcoin holders and wrapped BTC users on Ethereum. By 2030, it’s estimated that $47 billion worth of BTC (2.3% of total supply) could be bridged to these ecosystems if issues like competitive yields, robust ecosystems, and trust in bridge mechanisms are addressed.
A Data-Driven Update on Stablecoins by Coin Metrics
The stablecoin market has expanded significantly, with a total supply reaching $189 billion, led by Tether’s USDT at 66% market share and Ethereum hosting 55% of all stablecoin issuance. Stablecoins are vital for liquidity in both bull and bear markets, facilitating trading and on-chain transactions. Stablecoins trading volume recently surged to $120 billion. Platforms like Solana and Ethereum are seeing record high stablecoin usage, driven by low fees and high adoption. Meanwhile, innovative yield-driven models like Ethena’s USDe are growing rapidly, leveraging funding rates and staking mechanisms. Regulatory clarity is expected to further bolster stablecoin adoption and evolution.
MicroStrategy’s End Game by The Woolf Den
The Wolf Den analyzes MicroStrategy's remarkable performance, including a 568% annual stock gain, driven by Michael Saylor's aggressive BTC acquisition strategy. Saylor envisions transforming the company into a leading “Bitcoin bank,” leveraging low-interest debt and innovative financial instruments to accumulate Bitcoin at scale. With holdings exceeding 252,000 BTC (around 1.5% of the adjusted total supply), Saylor predicts Bitcoin's value reaching millions per coin, potentially fueling a trillion-dollar valuation for MicroStrategy. While the strategy excites many, it raises concerns about speculative risks, regulatory intervention, and overvaluation, as the stock trades at a premium to its Bitcoin assets.
Short-Term vs. Long-Term Forecasts by Luke Burke & Daniel Rasmussen
This blog examines the challenges of economic forecasting, highlighting how accuracy declines over longer time horizons. A study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that short-term forecasts (within a year) are more reliable, with forecasters often underestimating their accuracy, while long-term forecasts are prone to overconfidence and significant errors. Equity analysts also show similar patterns, with short-term cash flow predictions aligning reasonably well with outcomes, except during recessions. Longer-term forecasts often reflect irrational optimism or pessimism, making them unreliable and sometimes contrarian indicators of future market performance.
No information in this blog is intended to provide any personal investment services or advice nor is it an investment recommendation. Clients are responsible for making their own investment decisions. Bitstamp accepts no responsibility for any damage and/or loss arising from the use of information provided herein. Past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future results. Please consider your individual position and financial goals before making an independent investment decision.
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