Bitstamp by Robinhood Monthly Briefing – May 2025

May was another busy month in crypto. Prices moved, trading picked up, and new trends started to form. In this briefing, we highlight what happened in the markets, what people are talking about, and what to keep an eye on as we head into June.

Market update

The total crypto market cap increased by 11.3% month-over-month, reaching $3.23 trillion at the end of May. Trading volume on the leading crypto spot exchanges we monitor saw a 14% increase during this period.

BTC's market dominance decreased by 0.12 percentage points month-over-month to 64.4%.

Total crypto market cap (grey) and BTC dominance (green)

Biggest movers in May

• +79.8% SPX6900 (SPX) – SPX broke through an important resistance at around $0.65, which propelled the price higher
• +63.2% Hyperliquid (HYPE) – The price continued to rise from April and spiked once it broke through the long-term resistance at around $28.20
• +50.5% Aave (AAVE) – Growing investor confidence, institutional buying, and positive technical indicators contributed to the price action

• -21.0% XDC Network (XDC) – The price fell after undergoing a multi-month correction
• -20.6% Sonic (S) – The token faced downward pressure following the abrupt end of its partnership with market-making firm Wintermute
• -20.0% Pyth Network (PYTH) – Headwinds accelerated during the biggest token unlock in the project’s history, where approximately $298 million worth of tokens were released, causing a supply shock

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The performance of crypto assets can be highly volatile. Data taken on June 1, 2025.

Key macro & crypto events in June 2025

• June 7–22: Blockchain Week Berlin in Berlin, Germany
• June 10: Proof of Talk in Paris, France
• June 11: US Inflation & Core Inflation rate
• June 16: Australian Digital Economy Conference in Gold Coast, QLD, Australia
• June 18: FED Interest Rate Decision and press conference
• June 18: FOMC Economic projections
• June 18–19: Nordic Blockchain Conference in Stockholm, Sweden
• June 19–21: BTC Prague in Prague, Czech Republic
• June 24–27: Permissionless IV Brooklyn in Brooklyn, NY, USA
• June 26: GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final in US
• June 26: General Council meeting of the ECB (virtual)
• June 26–27: Istanbul Blockchain Week in Istanbul, Turkey

Decoding crypto market dynamics through options data  

The cryptocurrency options market has rapidly evolved into a powerful tool for understanding trader sentiment, positioning, and volatility expectations. With Bitcoin options open interest increasing fivefold since 2022 and total trading volume hitting $743 billion in 2024, crypto options have become a vital part of market structure and analysis.

This explosive growth reflects rising institutional involvement and sophisticated retail participation. Deribit leads the space, accounting for the majority of options volume and reporting record activity in 2024, doubling year-over-year and setting new highs in Q4. The options landscape now extends beyond Bitcoin, with ETH-USD and XRP-USDC among the top-traded pairs, signaling increased diversification and adoption of advanced portfolio strategies.

Open interest (OI) is a key market sentiment metric, indicating the total number of active options contracts. Rising OI alongside price increases often confirms bullish momentum, while rising OI during price declines suggests growing bearish positioning. Divergences between price and OI trends can signal potential reversals. Current data shows bullish Bitcoin positioning, with OI clustered at $90K–$180K strike prices for December 2025 expiries, whereas Ethereum shows more fragmented positioning, reflecting less directional consensus.

Implied volatility (IV) offers a forward-looking gauge of expected price swings. Derived from options pricing, IV rises during periods of anticipated turbulence and falls in calmer markets. Recent spikes in short-term IV for both BTC and ETH suggest the market is bracing for volatility, possibly driven by macro or cross-market factors.

The put-call ratio, another sentiment gauge, compares bearish (put) to bullish (call) positions. In crypto, a baseline around 0.7 is neutral; higher suggests bearish bias, while lower implies bullish sentiment. Extreme readings often precede reversals, making this a valuable contrarian tool when combined with OI and IV analysis.

Market structure remains highly centralized, with Deribit dominating despite participation from other exchanges like CME and OKEx. While this ensures liquidity, it also presents concentration risks.

As the ecosystem matures, crypto options are enabling more nuanced trading and risk management strategies, from volatility arbitrage to portfolio hedging. The continued evolution of this market promises deeper insights and more sophisticated tools for navigating crypto’s complexity, making options data indispensable for informed trading.

Recommended reads

The Sunk Cost of Market Timing by Ben Carlson

This piece reflects on investing mistakes and decision-making by drawing a parallel to unread Kindle books, both represent sunk costs. Just as you shouldn’t feel obligated to read every book you’ve bought, you shouldn’t let past investment errors dictate future decisions. Market timing missteps are common, but the key is not to dwell on missed opportunities or cash sitting idle. Instead, focus on creating a forward-looking investment plan you can stick to, whether it's averaging back in or going all at once. The past is gone, the real challenge is overcoming emotional attachment and making rational choices going forward.

Is A Bitcoin Supercycle possible? By Bitcoin Magazine

The article argues that Bitcoin’s current market cycle shows strong similarities to previous bull runs, particularly in 2013 and 2017, with key behavioral and technical indicators suggesting the potential for another major rally. Despite macroeconomic volatility, long-term holders continue accumulating, sentiment is improving, and structural metrics like the MVRV-Z score and HODL waves show healthy market behavior. While it’s uncertain whether Bitcoin will repeat its euphoric peaks of the past, the data suggests we may be in the middle of a historically rare triple-peak cycle. The groundwork appears to be laid for further upside, possibly setting the stage for one of Bitcoin’s most powerful bull runs yet.

The Great Bitcoin Copy Machine by Boring Bonds

The author critiques how Bitcoin, originally envisioned as a decentralized, anti-establishment form of money, has been co-opted by financial elites and political insiders for profit. It argues that Bitcoin's revolutionary promise is being diluted as traditional power players, including major Wall Street firms and politically connected individuals, wrap it in corporate structures, SPACs, and financial engineering to create speculative investment vehicles. These "clones" mimic Michael Saylor's strategy of turning Bitcoin into a publicly traded asset, leading to inflated valuations and meme-stock-like returns, benefiting insiders while exposing retail investors to potential losses in yet another financial grift.

No information in this blog is intended to provide any personal investment services or advice nor is it an investment recommendation. Clients are responsible for making their own investment decisions. Bitstamp accepts no responsibility for any damage and/or loss arising from the use of information provided herein. Past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future results. Please consider your individual position and financial goals before making an independent investment decision.

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